What If China Invaded Taiwan?

In December 2025, China’s military surrounded Taiwan in drills that rehearsed a blockade. The Pentagon says China aims to be able to win a war over Taiwan by 2027. This video uses real data, wargames and animated maps to show what would really happen if China invaded Taiwan.

Why Taiwan matters to everyone

Taiwan is home to about 23 million people and lies just 130 km from mainland China at the narrowest point. TSMC earns about 70% of global chip foundry revenue and makes most of the world’s most advanced chips. More than one fifth of global maritime trade passes through the Taiwan Strait.

David vs Goliath

China spent an estimated $336 billion on its military in 2025 (SIPRI). Taiwan plans around $31 billion for 2026. China has about two million active troops and the world’s largest navy, while Taiwan has fewer than 200,000 active troops. But an invasion would mean crossing the sea, possibly the largest amphibious assault since D-Day.

What the wargames show

CSIS ran an invasion wargame 24 times, and in most scenarios the invasion failed. The cost was staggering:

• The United States typically lost two aircraft carriers and up to 20 large warships, with about 3,200 troops killed in three weeks.
• China lost around 10,000 troops, 155 aircraft and 138 major ships.
• Taiwan was left without electricity and basic services.

The cost to the world

Bloomberg Economics estimates that a war over Taiwan would cost about $10.6 trillion in the first year, nearly 10% of world GDP. Taiwan’s economy would shrink by around 40%, South Korea’s by 23%, the EU’s and China’s by about 11%, and the US economy by almost 7%. Even a blockade would cut world GDP by about 5%.

Who would win?

According to the wargames, probably no one. Most experts see the bigger risk in slow pressure through drills, blockades and threats rather than a sudden invasion. For now, the strongest weapon in the Taiwan Strait is deterrence.

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Sources: US DoD China Military Power Report (2025); CSIS (2023); Bloomberg Economics (2024, 2026); SIPRI (2026); Taiwan 2026 budget; IISS.