What If the Strait of Hormuz Closed?
For decades, experts asked what would happen if the Strait of Hormuz ever closed. In 2026, the world found out. After the US and Israeli strikes on Iran on February 28, 2026, tanker traffic through the strait collapsed. The International Energy Agency called it the largest supply disruption in the history of the oil market.
One narrow gate
The strait is about 33 km wide at its narrowest point. Before the war, about 20 million barrels of oil passed through it every day, roughly one fifth of world consumption, together with about a fifth of the world’s liquefied natural gas. Bypass pipelines through Saudi Arabia and the UAE can carry only a fraction of that, and Iraq, Kuwait and Qatar have no alternative route at all.
2026 timeline
- March: Iranian drones strike Qatar’s Ras Laffan, and Qatar declares force majeure on LNG deliveries.
- 11 March: IEA members agree a record release of 400 million barrels from emergency stocks.
- April: A ceasefire is followed by a US naval blockade of Iranian ports. The strait is reopened and closed again within a day.
- 30 April: Brent crude briefly rises above $126 a barrel, up from around $70 before the war.
- June–November: A deal reopens the strait for a while. By the autumn it is closed again, and attacks on ships continue.
How it reaches you
The crisis shows up in higher fuel prices, gas bills at their highest since 2022 in Europe and Asia, and more expensive food and goods. The poorest importing countries are hit hardest. What happens next depends on whether a lasting agreement reopens the strait.
Information accurate as of early November 2026.
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Sources: IEA; US EIA; QatarEnergy notices; JMIC/UKMTO (Nov 2026); AP, Reuters, Al Jazeera, CNN; ICE Brent.
